Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 20.199104 21.913544 23.763490 25.917960 28.370783 31.091452 34.358546
2025-08-24 17.160953 19.452545 22.093937 25.401500 29.487349 34.444857 41.036540
2025-08-31 15.184281 17.780427 20.925769 25.095424 30.603433 37.824947 48.366689
2025-09-07 13.758569 16.522877 20.006247 24.843393 31.605284 41.097243 56.210476
2025-09-14 12.707329 15.580456 19.321408 24.726407 32.668595 44.536495 65.080744
2025-09-21 11.805200 14.720933 18.620955 24.446848 33.384400 47.506878 73.946720
2025-09-28 11.425447 14.509385 18.757203 25.342539 35.955000 53.869864 90.847992
2025-10-05 10.788660 13.879943 18.228745 25.156725 36.742476 57.331836 103.364915
2025-10-12 10.262614 13.360549 17.804067 25.065059 37.643495 61.152014 118.205971
2025-10-19 9.898850 13.043165 17.643682 25.362442 39.243838 66.657062 139.773124
2025-10-26 9.459450 12.582164 17.223076 25.175537 39.919512 70.410884 158.788716
2025-11-02 9.048211 12.135858 16.788903 24.914879 40.406211 73.860040 179.086333
2025-11-09 8.718392 11.800639 16.517193 24.930008 41.482388 79.072449 209.763207
2025-11-16 8.367891 11.414454 16.137837 24.718306 42.075857 83.328636 241.158738
2025-11-23 8.051669 11.063689 15.791754 24.532297 42.697090 87.870074 279.040092
2025-11-30 7.758274 10.732653 15.455553 24.330620 43.253508 92.434853 323.402863
2025-12-07 7.506664 10.454375 15.188870 24.233652 44.030029 97.918086 382.173147
2025-12-14 7.244643 10.146297 14.851997 23.968584 44.377171 102.246817 442.767288
2025-12-21 7.189391 10.168289 15.081872 24.841189 47.598374 117.245508 630.237481
2025-12-28 6.969945 9.910383 14.805406 24.661755 48.175618 123.386640 763.295792
2026-01-04 6.778534 9.690139 14.582727 24.573119 48.977607 130.792062 953.845030
2026-01-11 6.654116 9.575556 14.541920 24.862138 50.841320 143.456888 1335.143180
2026-01-18 6.470368 9.353081 14.292432 24.680658 51.383893 150.871491 1714.266998